Unrestricted AI systems will be used first to concentrate power in developing countries, and this will be a testing ground for global power concentration.
There's historical precedent for powerful companies, based in superpower countries, leading or facilitating power concentration in poorer nations. The United Fruit Company, an American organization, directly contributed to a power grab in Guatemala (the case that gave us the term "banana republic"). All of it while staying perfectly legal at home. Similarly, a model that refuses to help a coup in Washington can still enable one abroad. More details on this threat model in this EA Forum post.
The field of AI power concentration is still nascent, and has so far focused on how it might take place in the US or the world as a whole. Through this project, I will address the missing majority of the world. I'll do this by articulating this mechanism in a way that researchers, funders, and governments can scrutinize, build on, and extend. I seek to build a community of practice of people worried about AI-enabled coups in middle powers (via the seminar, webinar, and public essay).
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