Token taxes as a mechanism for reducing AI-driven power concentration.

London, United Kingdom

active4 people

A policy memo, co-authored with the Institute for Public Policy Research, resolving the open technical, economic, and legal questions blocking real-world implementation of token taxes.

Endorsed by

Gavin

Ryan

Marcus+2

A policy memo, co-authored with the Institute for Public Policy Research, resolving the open technical, economic, and legal questions blocking real-world implementation of token taxes.

Endorsed by

Gavin

Ryan

Marcus+2

Project Details

The rapid development of AI threatens to erode government revenues, resulting in stark inequality, and an extreme concentration of economic and geopolitical power. To prevent this, governments require effective mechanisms for capturing the economic value of AI by shifting taxation away from labour and towards capital. Token taxes – surcharges on model inference applied at the point of sale – are a promising contender for such a mechanism as they are more likely to be enforceable via compute governance infrastructure.

While token taxes have been proposed, many technical, economic, and legal questions associated with implementation remain unanswered. Building on this position paper, we will convene experts in technical governance and economics over a 6 month period to research four open research questions:

RQ1: Can compute governance infrastructure be leveraged to reliably audit token taxes?
RQ2: What are the legal challenges associated with implementing token taxes?
RQ3: What are the advantages and disadvantages of token taxes compared to alternative taxation mechanisms such as compute taxes, VAT, and digital services taxes?
RQ4: Can we model the impact of a token tax on the UK economy using LLM-powered agent-based modelling?

Our output will be a policy memo with answers to RQ1-RQ4 above, co-authored with the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) who have expressed interest. Based on these findings, we will re-evaluate the desirability of token taxes among the policy options for taxing AI capital.

Token taxes promise to be more enforceable than alternative forms of taxation. Unlike corporation tax (which the European Commission estimates at 9.5% for digital services companies compared to 23.2% for traditional firms), token taxes take advantage of the unique properties of AI to prevent tax evasion. In particular, they can leverage existing compute governance infrastructure for auditing and enforcement. In this way, token taxes can mitigate the concentration of power by allowing governments to capture AI-generated value.

The token tax paper has been mentioned in an interview by US Congressman Greg Casar, proposed as a policy in California gubernatorial candidate, Tom Steyer's manifesto, and we have received a letter of interest from a UK MP, Anneliese Dodds, expressing interest in a token taxes memo with further letters of interest from MPs expected. The Overton window for implementation has therefore shifted rapidly, directly influencing the timing of this application.

Theory of Impact

Extreme concentration of power threatens to disempower citizens and engender government fiscal crises by reducing labour tax revenues. Left unchecked, this concentration will degrade the very democratic institutions that societies rely on to avoid catastrophic outcomes, including great power conflict and nuclear war. Governments' ability to reliably tax AI capital and redistribute the windfalls will be central to mitigating this destabilising inequality. While there are excellent organisations (The Windfall Trust, Convergence Analysis) producing high-quality work on policy interventions, few are focused on translating this research into timely memos for policymakers.

The token taxes project will bridge the gap between research and policy implementation by resolving open technical, economic, and legal questions standing in the way of a token tax bill. The Overton window for implementation has shifted, and the policy is rapidly gaining attention from policymakers in the US and the UK. Our existing relationships with these policymakers will allow us to stress-test whether a dedicated team of AI safety technical governance and economics researchers can strengthen democratic institutions’ capacity to reduce economic and geopolitical power concentration. If successful, we will seek to raise further funding to set up further work streams.

People

Lucas Irwin

Team Member

Funding Details

Start Date: Sep 1, 2026
End Date: Feb 28, 2027
Expected Duration: 6 months
Funding Raised to Date: -
Annual Budget: -
Monthly Burn Rate: -
Current Runway: -
Funding Goal: -
Funding Stage: Partially funded
Fiscal Sponsor: -

Grants Received

Add grant

Grant

from grantmaking.ai

$50,000

Discussion

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LLukeEndorsement3mo

Having worked with Lucas as a GovAI Summer Fellow this year, I've been continuously impressed by both the quality of his work and the support he has been already able to gather for the Token tax idea. I look forward to seeing what comes next with it

Gavin LeechReviewer3mo

Hi Lucas, we're making a grant of $50k (our maximum). The platform will be in touch by email.

Can you confirm whether:

you received funding from anywhere since submitting this application, or has the funding ask changed for any other reason?
Please confirm your commitment to post quarterly updates on how the project is going.

Speaking for myself, I liked this one for the strong team and because the existing discourse is severely insufficient to promote or rule out the proposal. As you know, there's already a heated argument (about when we can disregard Diamond-Mirrlees via a Sandmo argument, whether excluding B2B tokens makes this just a sales tax with airs, how to avoid the inevitable arbitrariness and gaming from (easy!) tokenizer changes).

My two cents: for xrisk reduction, I favour mandatory research liability insurance and predeployment licencing instead of taxes; against labour displacement, I favour broad cuts to income tax; and against your focus, concentration of power, I favour windfall equity or permanent rents. I hope you compare the token tax to these options in your work, but either way I'm glad you're investigating it on its own terms.

Congrats and good luck!

Lucas Irwin3mo

Hi Gavin, thanks very much for the support and for your kind feedback! To confirm:

We have not received any other funding, and the funding ask remains the same.
We commit to posting quarterly updates on the project's progress.

We're grateful for your feedback on important questions to include in our research. In our framework, gaming via tokenizers will fall under RQ1, and the Diamond-Mirrlees v Sandmo argument and sales tax comparison will fall under RQ3. We will make sure to include these questions in our research. We also plan to compare token taxes to alternatives including cuts to income taxes, windfall equity, permanent rents etc as you mention. This is something our collaborator at the IPPR has expressed a keen interest in as well. As an extension, we have also considered comparing policy alternatives to each other using agent-based modelling, which we hope to pursue with additional funding.

Thanks again for your support!

Grant ReviewerPrivate3mo?

Liu FenEndorsement2mo

This is a timely and well-grounded proposal: it moves the token-tax idea from position paper to concrete policy analysis at exactly the moment political interest is materializing, with a clear research plan and a credible partner in IPPR to ensure the output lands with policymakers. I'm glad to endorse it.