Existential Risk Observatory

The Existential Risk Observatory (XRO) is a foundation under Dutch law (stichting) established in May 2021 in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. It was founded by Otto Barten, a physicist and sustainable energy engineer, with the mission of reducing human extinction risk by informing the public debate. The organization holds ANBI tax-exempt status in the Netherlands.

XRO identifies communication about existential risks to a general audience as a particularly neglected area within the broader field of existential risk reduction. The organization tracks its impact partly by measuring the number of articles published in major news outlets mentioning existential risk in a relevant context. Their work spans six risk categories: unaligned artificial intelligence, man-made pandemics, extreme climate change, nuclear war, natural extinction risks, and other emerging technological threats, with AI risk receiving the most attention.

The organization has published op-eds and articles in prominent outlets including TIME magazine, De Telegraaf, Het Parool, NRC, and Trouw. In October 2021, XRO organized Europe's first Existential Risk Conference, an online event featuring speakers from the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, the Future of Life Institute, and other institutions. The organization has since developed the AI Safety Summit Talks series, hosting public events alongside government AI safety summits. Notable events include a February 2025 debate in Paris featuring Turing Award winner Yoshua Bengio, moderated by Otto Barten and David Wood of London Futurists, with panelists including Jaan Tallinn and journalists from TIME and The Economist.

In November 2024, XRO's most prominent policy initiative, the Conditional AI Safety Treaty, was published in TIME. The treaty proposes that signatory countries agree to halt potentially unsafe AI training when AI Safety Institutes determine that risks of loss of control have become unacceptable. The proposal builds on recommendations from Geoffrey Hinton and Yoshua Bengio.

In 2024, the Campaign for AI Safety (CAIS), founded by Nik Samoylov, merged with the Existential Risk Observatory, expanding the organization's campaigning and public advocacy capacity. XRO has also submitted policy recommendations to the Dutch Parliament, including a position paper for a Dutch Roundtable Meeting on the dangers of artificial intelligence.

The organization's research output includes papers on trends in public attitudes toward existential risk, the effectiveness of AI risk communication to the American and Dutch public, and assessments of current AI as an existential risk factor. The team is composed of a board of three (director, treasurer, secretary) and several researchers and staff with backgrounds in physics, mathematics, AI, policy, and communications. Many team members work in a volunteer capacity.

XRO was initially self-funded and has since received grants from the Survival and Flourishing Fund (backed by Jaan Tallinn, in 2022) and the Long-Term Future Fund (in 2024), as well as contributions from individual donors. The organization describes itself as funding-constrained and states that additional resources would enable operations in more countries and expanded research.