Funding ask
Our core finding was that a secret loyalty transfers through fine-tuning and preference labelling, but the chain breaks when the loyal model is used as a reward model. Based on reviewer feedback, there are 3 potential next phases of work to strengthen our initial results. Phase 1 tests which claims survive hardening; Phases 2–3 complete and generalize whichever pattern holds.
Phase 1 Hardening:
- Rescore all three arms with a second judge model, a hedging-blind rubric, and k-sample averaging, for judge robustness and to bound the hedging confound.
- Build a judge-free stance metric (logprob over fixed paired continuations), immune to length and hedging by construction and reusable downstream.
- Reviewers flagged a potentially fatal confound: the teacher may prefer responses that hedge more, not responses expressing loyalty. Train a hedge-only-labels DPO arm to test this directly.
- Rerun SFT and DPO with two extra seeds each, so intervals cover training runs.
- Train a clean-backbone/loyal-labels reward model and rerun the hidden-state probe — the missing cell in the RM design. Use the same prompt set across all three arms.
Phase 2 Added realism:
- Complete the RM arm by training a policy against each reward model; end-to-end transfer is currently inferred, not measured. A cheap best-of-n pilot first determines whether the full run is warranted.
- Dose-response (DPO and SFT): vary the fraction of infected training data — pairs labelled by the compromised judge, and synthetic data from the organism — to find the contamination threshold at which the disposition still transfers.
Phase 3 Generalisation:
- Replicate across other model organisms with hidden loyalties.
- Test cross-family transfer, to determine whether the channel requires a shared base as subliminal learning does.
- Test multi-hop transmission, filtering and ranking synthetic data at each hop, to see whether selection amplifies what distillation attenuates.
Assuming renting H100-class at $2–3/GPU-hr, here is the budget by list item:
Phase 1 Hardening:
- Rescore all three arms with a second judge model, a hedging-blind rubric, and k-sample averaging — ~0 GPU-hr, $150–250 API
- Build a judge-free stance metric (logprob over fixed paired continuations) — 5 GPU-hr, no API
- Train a hedge-only-labels DPO arm (same 532 pairs labelled by hedge count, no teacher) — 3 GPU-hr, $30–50 API
- Rerun SFT and DPO with two extra seeds each — 10–15 GPU-hr, $50–100 API
- Train clean-backbone/loyal-labels reward model, rerun the hidden-state probe, harmonise the prompt set across arms — 5–10 GPU-hr, $30–50 API
- Subtotal — 23–33 GPU-hr, $260–450 API
Phase 2 Added realism:
- Complete the RM arm by training a policy against each reward model, gated by a best-of-n pilot — 65–115 GPU-hr, no API
- Dose-response across DPO and SFT: vary the fraction of infected training data to find the contamination threshold — 20–30 GPU-hr, $80–150 API
- Subtotal — 85–145 GPU-hr, $80–150 API
Phase 3 Generalisation:
- Replicate across other model organisms with hidden loyalties (3 organisms) — 30–50 GPU-hr, $150–250 API
- Test cross-family transfer — 15–25 GPU-hr, $100–200 API
- Test multi-hop transmission with filtering and ranking at each hop — 35–55 GPU-hr, $200–300 API
- Subtotal — 80–130 GPU-hr, $450–750 API
Totals:
- GPU: 188–308 GPU-hr → $375–925
- Judge API: $790–1,350
- Combined: $1,165–2,275
- With 25% headroom: ~$3,000
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