Calibrated Auditing: When Can You Trust a Hidden-Loyalty Detector?
Six months extending Loyal Lies (5th of 179 teams, Apart x Formation Secret Loyalties Sprint) into auditing tools other people can use.
First, calibration and negative controls. Our blind audit named a principal in all three third-party organisms we tested. None had a verified loyalty and one was bit-identical to its base model. Every method we ran returned an answer whether or not there was anything to find. I will build the missing null machinery: per-method null distributions over candidate rankings, a true-negative organism suite, and a decision rule that turns a raw audit output into a claim with an error rate attached instead of a name. It ships as a Petri extension, so auditing teams get it inside a tool they already run.
Second, the multi-channel attack. Our obfuscation fine-tune pushed the principal from rank 1 to ranks 27-42 under decision-context logprob scoring, while prior-context scoring held rank 1. That defeats one channel, not the defense. I will train organisms that minimise margin across every scored channel at once, add perplexity differencing as a fourth channel, and report which one survives.
Third, scale and realism. This rests on 1.5B and 7B organisms with fictional principals, built one way. I will replicate at 14B with real-entity principals across several construction methods, since recent work shows interpretability results vary by up to 20x with construction alone.
The $8,000 minimum funds the first workstream, four months at 7B: protocol and true-negative suite ship, nothing else. The full ask funds all three, plus an external blind audit and a public release.
MINIMUM, $8,000, four months, workstream 1 only, 7B scale:
Researcher stipend, 4 months at $1,000/mo: $4,000
Compute for the true-negative organism suite, null distributions and probe re-runs (~750 H100-hrs at ~$2.90, ~600 A100-hrs at ~$0.90): $2,700
Inference API for candidate harvesting and LLM-judge validation: $800
Storage and public release (adapters, dataset cards, mirrors): $300
Contingency for failed runs and spot price variance: $200
IDEAL, $35,000, six months, all three workstreams:
Researcher stipend, 6 months at $1,500/mo: $9,000
Compute for 14B organism training across several construction methods, five-seed replication and multi-channel attack sweeps (~5,400 H100-hrs at ~$2.90, ~2,150 A100-hrs at ~$0.90): $17,600
Inference API for automated auditor agents, blind-audit runs and judge validation at scale: $3,000
External blind-audit panel, 4 independent auditors at $500: $2,000
Benchmark hosting and public release: $1,000
Conference travel and registration, one venue: $2,000
Contingency: $400
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